Vis Artena 3–2 Latte Dolce: Result & Stats

Vis Artena

FT

3 – 2

Latte Dolce

2/2/2020

Serie D - Girone G · Round 22Stadio Comunale Roberto Abbafati (Lariano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vis Artena42%

×Draw27%

Latte Dolce32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vis ArtenaExpected goals in this matchLatte Dolce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.15

Vis Artena

1.36

Latte Dolce

1.15

Vis Artena creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 82 away

1.13

creates per match

1.10

1.19

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Vis Artena

1.13

Latte Dolce

1.10

allows per match

Vis Artena

1.19

Latte Dolce

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par

Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Latte Dolce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw

68%

Vis Artena or Latte Dolce

73%

Draw or Latte Dolce

58%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+

19%

Latte Dolce wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals

74%

Vis Artena 2+ goals

39%

Vis Artena 3+ goals

16%

Latte Dolce 1+ goals

68%

Latte Dolce 2+ goals

32%

Latte Dolce 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)

57%

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vis Artena scores more

42%

level

27%

Latte Dolce scores more

32%

Vis Artena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff