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Vis Artena vs Atletico Uri — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Vis Artena
Vis Artena
FT
1 – 2
Atletico Uri
Atletico Uri
10/3/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 3Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vis Artena46%
×Draw27%
Atletico Uri27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Artena
1.42
Atletico Uri
1.03

Vis Artena creates 38% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 68 away

creates per match

Vis Artena
1.13
Atletico Uri
0.87

allows per match

Vis Artena
1.19
Atletico Uri
1.71

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par
Atletico Uri+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Atletico Uri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw
73%
Vis Artena or Atletico Uri
73%
Draw or Atletico Uri
54%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+
22%
Atletico Uri wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals
76%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
41%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
17%
Atletico Uri 1+ goals
64%
Atletico Uri 2+ goals
28%
Atletico Uri 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)
63%
Atletico Uri (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Atletico Uri away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.71 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Atletico Uri defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Atletico Uri attack 0.87 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vis Artena scores more
46%
level
27%
Atletico Uri scores more
27%

Vis Artena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Artena vs Atletico Uri

Atletico Uri beat Vis Artena 2-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Artena.