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Vis Artena vs Aprilia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Vis Artena
Vis Artena
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Aprilia
Aprilia
5/7/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 34Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vis Artena38%
×Draw28%
Aprilia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vis Artena
1.21
Aprilia
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 47 away

creates per match

Vis Artena
1.13
Aprilia
1.09

allows per match

Vis Artena
1.19
Aprilia
1.30

finishing

Vis Artena+0.00on par
Aprilia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vis Artena ↓

Aprilia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vis Artena or draw
66%
Vis Artena or Aprilia
72%
Draw or Aprilia
62%

Winning margin

Vis Artena wins by 2+
16%
Aprilia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vis Artena 1+ goals
70%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
34%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
12%
Aprilia 1+ goals
68%
Aprilia 2+ goals
32%
Aprilia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vis Artena (draw refunded)
52%
Aprilia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vis Artena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Aprilia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vis Artena attack 1.13 + Aprilia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Aprilia attack 1.09 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vis Artena scores more
38%
level
28%
Aprilia scores more
34%

Vis Artena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vis Artena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vis Artena vs Aprilia

Vis Artena and Aprilia drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone G on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Artena.