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Virtus vs Tre Penne — Coppa Titano 2020

Virtus
Virtusadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Tre Penne
Tre Penne
5/27/2023Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · FinalStadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Virtus41%
×Draw24%
Tre Penne35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus
1.56
Tre Penne
1.42

Virtus creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Virtus
1.92
Tre Penne
2.00

allows per match

Virtus
0.83
Tre Penne
1.21

finishing

Virtus+0.00on par
Tre Penne+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus ↓

Tre Penne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Virtus or draw
65%
Virtus or Tre Penne
76%
Draw or Tre Penne
59%

Winning margin

Virtus wins by 2+
20%
Tre Penne wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Virtus 1+ goals
79%
Virtus 2+ goals
46%
Virtus 3+ goals
21%
Tre Penne 1+ goals
76%
Tre Penne 2+ goals
41%
Tre Penne 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Virtus (draw refunded)
54%
Tre Penne (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Tre Penne away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus attack 1.92 + Tre Penne defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tre Penne attack 2.00 + Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Virtus scores more
41%
level
24%
Tre Penne scores more
35%

Virtus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa Titano: Virtus 3–1 Tre Penne

Virtus beat Tre Penne 3-1 in Coppa Titano on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo in Città di San Marino.