Virtus Entella 0–2 Venezia: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Venezia

P. Ceccaroni 76'

F. Forte 49'

11/14/2020

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Virtus Entella33%

×Draw28%

Venezia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.25

Virtus Entella

1.14

Venezia

1.25

Venezia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 113 away

1.19

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.19

Venezia

1.25

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.25

Venezia

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

61%

Virtus Entella or Venezia

72%

Draw or Venezia

67%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

14%

Venezia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

68%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

32%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

11%

Venezia 1+ goals

71%

Venezia 2+ goals

36%

Venezia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

46%

Venezia (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.19 + Venezia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Venezia attack 1.25 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

33%

level

28%

Venezia scores more

39%

Venezia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

P. Ceccaroni

Venezia · D

8.3

Match Events

14'

M. Toscano← M. Brescianini

24'

Gian Filippo Felicioli

30'

Michele Currarino

49'

F. Forte↳ P. Ceccaroni

56'

C. Cardoselli← L. Morosini

57'

M. Mancosu← M. Brunori

72'

T. Petrović← F. Poli

72'

G. Cleur← M. Currarino

72'

A. Taugourdeau← A. Vacca

76'

P. Ceccaroni↳ M. Aramu

77'

C. Molinaro← G. Felicioli

88'

R. Bocalon← F. Forte

88'

M. Svoboda← D. Johnsen

88'

H. St Clair← P. Mazzocchi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusVenezia

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots16

3Corners9

24Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots16

2On Target6

3Off Target4

2Blocked6

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

377Total Passes429

298Accurate Passes352

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

24Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3