Virtus Entella 1–1 Sudtirol: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sudtirol

A. Debenedetti 43'

R. Odogwu 90'

12/21/2025

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Virtus Entella37%

×Draw28%

Sudtirol35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus EntellaExpected goals in this matchSudtirol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.17

Virtus Entella

1.21

Sudtirol

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 78 away

1.14

creates per match

1.08

1.25

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Virtus Entella

1.14

Sudtirol

1.08

allows per match

Virtus Entella

1.25

Sudtirol

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par

Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Sudtirol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw

65%

Virtus Entella or Sudtirol

72%

Draw or Sudtirol

63%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+

16%

Sudtirol wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals

70%

Virtus Entella 2+ goals

34%

Virtus Entella 3+ goals

12%

Sudtirol 1+ goals

69%

Sudtirol 2+ goals

33%

Sudtirol 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)

51%

Sudtirol (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.14 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Virtus Entella scores more

37%

level

28%

Sudtirol scores more

35%

Virtus Entella at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Debenedetti

Virtus Entella · F

7.7

Match Events

15'

Bernat Guiu

29'

Frédéric Veseli

38'

Andrea Franzoni

43'

A. Debenedetti↳ D. Bariti

46'

A. Masiello← F. Veseli

46'

A. Mallamo← D. Casiraghi

58'

Jacopo Martini

62'

M. Coulibaly← F. Tait

62'

R. Odogwu← E. Pecorino

69'

D. Portanova← M. Nichetti

70'

M. Dalla Vecchia← D. Bariti

78'

Marco Dalla Vecchia

82'

T. Fumagalli← B. Guiu

83'

F. Russo← A. Debenedetti

84'

J. Italeng← S. Merkaj

89'

L. Moretti← F. Mezzoni

90'

R. Odogwu↳ H. El Kaouakibi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VirtusSudtirol

Overview

44%Possession56%

8Total Shots9

0.70Expected Goals (xG)0.81

2Corners3

17Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots9

4On Target2

4Off Target3

0Blocked4

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

335Total Passes418

225Accurate Passes302

67%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides6

Serie B: Virtus Entella 1–1 Sudtirol

Virtus Entella and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 21, 2025.

Goals: A. Debenedetti (43'), R. Odogwu (90').

Sudtirol controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.

Virtus Entella vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Virtus Entella 1–1 Sudtirol