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Virtus Entella vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
11/30/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 9Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Virtus Entella39%
×Draw28%
Spal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella
1.21
Spal
1.08

Virtus Entella creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella
1.14
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Virtus Entella
1.25
Spal
1.27

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw
67%
Virtus Entella or Spal
72%
Draw or Spal
61%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+
17%
Spal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals
70%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
34%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
12%
Spal 1+ goals
66%
Spal 2+ goals
29%
Spal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
54%
Spal (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.14 + Spal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Spal attack 0.92 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Virtus Entella scores more
39%
level
28%
Spal scores more
33%

Virtus Entella at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Spal

Spal beat Virtus Entella 1-0 in Serie B on November 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Chiavari in Chiavari.