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Virtus Entella vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
10/17/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 8Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Virtus Entella40%
×Draw27%
Sampdoria33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella
1.33
Sampdoria
1.19

Virtus Entella creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 58 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella
1.14
Sampdoria
1.14

allows per match

Virtus Entella
1.25
Sampdoria
1.53

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par
Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw
67%
Virtus Entella or Sampdoria
73%
Draw or Sampdoria
60%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+
18%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals
74%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
38%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
15%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
70%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
33%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
55%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.14 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Virtus Entella scores more
40%
level
27%
Sampdoria scores more
33%

Virtus Entella at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Virtus Entella 3–1 Sampdoria

Virtus Entella beat Sampdoria 3-1 in Serie B on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.