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Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia — Serie B 2018

Virtus Entella
Virtus Entella
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juve Stabia
Juve Stabia
8/23/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 1Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Virtus Entella42%
×Draw27%
Juve Stabia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella
1.33
Juve Stabia
1.08

Virtus Entella creates 23% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 60 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella
1.14
Juve Stabia
0.92

allows per match

Virtus Entella
1.25
Juve Stabia
1.53

finishing

Virtus Entella+0.00on par
Juve Stabia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella ↓

Juve Stabia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Virtus Entella or draw
70%
Virtus Entella or Juve Stabia
73%
Draw or Juve Stabia
58%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella wins by 2+
19%
Juve Stabia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Virtus Entella 1+ goals
74%
Virtus Entella 2+ goals
38%
Virtus Entella 3+ goals
15%
Juve Stabia 1+ goals
66%
Juve Stabia 2+ goals
29%
Juve Stabia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella (draw refunded)
58%
Juve Stabia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Juve Stabia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella attack 1.14 + Juve Stabia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Juve Stabia attack 0.92 + Virtus Entella defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Virtus Entella scores more
42%
level
27%
Juve Stabia scores more
30%

Virtus Entella at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Virtus Entella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Entella vs Juve Stabia

Virtus Entella and Juve Stabia drew 1-1 in Serie B on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Chiavari.