Virtus Entella U19 1–2 Venezia U19: Result & Stats

Virtus Entella U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Venezia U19

4/5/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 25Stadio Angelo Daneri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Virtus Entella U1943%

×Draw24%

Venezia U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus Entella U19Expected goals in this matchVenezia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.41

Virtus Entella U19

1.65

Venezia U19

1.41

Virtus Entella U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 85 away

1.63

creates per match

1.58

1.24

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Virtus Entella U19

1.63

Venezia U19

1.58

allows per match

Virtus Entella U19

1.24

Venezia U19

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella U19+0.00on par

Venezia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella U19 ↓

Venezia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Virtus Entella U19 or draw

67%

Virtus Entella U19 or Venezia U19

76%

Draw or Venezia U19

57%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella U19 wins by 2+

22%

Venezia U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Virtus Entella U19 1+ goals

81%

Virtus Entella U19 2+ goals

49%

Virtus Entella U19 3+ goals

23%

Venezia U19 1+ goals

76%

Venezia U19 2+ goals

41%

Venezia U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Venezia U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

Venezia U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.68 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella U19 attack 1.63 + Venezia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Venezia U19 attack 1.58 + Virtus Entella U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Virtus Entella U19 scores more

43%

level

24%

Venezia U19 scores more

33%

Virtus Entella U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Virtus Entella U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff