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Virtus Entella U19 vs Perugia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Virtus Entella U19
Virtus Entella U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Perugia U19
Perugia U19
12/23/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 13Stadio Comunale Chiavari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Virtus Entella U1950%
×Draw24%
Perugia U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella U19
1.75
Perugia U19
1.21

Virtus Entella U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 73 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella U19
1.63
Perugia U19
1.18

allows per match

Virtus Entella U19
1.24
Perugia U19
1.88

finishing

Virtus Entella U19+0.00on par
Perugia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella U19 ↓

Perugia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Virtus Entella U19 or draw
74%
Virtus Entella U19 or Perugia U19
76%
Draw or Perugia U19
50%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella U19 wins by 2+
27%
Perugia U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Virtus Entella U19 1+ goals
83%
Virtus Entella U19 2+ goals
52%
Virtus Entella U19 3+ goals
25%
Perugia U19 1+ goals
70%
Perugia U19 2+ goals
34%
Perugia U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Perugia U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

Perugia U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella U19 attack 1.63 + Perugia U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Perugia U19 attack 1.18 + Virtus Entella U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Virtus Entella U19 scores more
50%
level
24%
Perugia U19 scores more
26%

Virtus Entella U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Virtus Entella U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Entella U19 vs Perugia U19

Perugia U19 beat Virtus Entella U19 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Chiavari in Chiavari.