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Virtus Entella U19 vs Monopoli U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Virtus Entella U19
Virtus Entella U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Monopoli U19
Monopoli U19
1/20/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 15Stadio Angelo Daneri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Virtus Entella U1954%
×Draw22%
Monopoli U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Entella U19
1.89
Monopoli U19
1.18

Virtus Entella U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 61 away

creates per match

Virtus Entella U19
1.63
Monopoli U19
1.11

allows per match

Virtus Entella U19
1.24
Monopoli U19
2.15

finishing

Virtus Entella U19+0.00on par
Monopoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella U19 ↓

Monopoli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Virtus Entella U19 or draw
76%
Virtus Entella U19 or Monopoli U19
78%
Draw or Monopoli U19
46%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella U19 wins by 2+
31%
Monopoli U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Virtus Entella U19 1+ goals
85%
Virtus Entella U19 2+ goals
56%
Virtus Entella U19 3+ goals
29%
Monopoli U19 1+ goals
69%
Monopoli U19 2+ goals
33%
Monopoli U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Monopoli U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

Monopoli U19 away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.15 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella U19 attack 1.63 + Monopoli U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.89

Monopoli U19 attack 1.11 + Virtus Entella U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Virtus Entella U19 scores more
54%
level
22%
Monopoli U19 scores more
24%

Virtus Entella U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Virtus Entella U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Virtus Entella U19 2–0 Monopoli U19

Virtus Entella U19 beat Monopoli U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Angelo Daneri in Chiavari.