Virtus Entella U19 0–0 FeralpiSalò U19

Virtus Entella U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FeralpiSalò U19

9/14/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 1Stadio Angelo Daneri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Virtus Entella U1957%

×Draw22%

FeralpiSalò U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus Entella U19Expected goals in this matchFeralpiSalò U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.04

Virtus Entella U19

1.88

FeralpiSalò U19

1.04

Virtus Entella U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 46 away

1.63

creates per match

0.85

1.24

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Virtus Entella U19

1.63

FeralpiSalò U19

0.85

allows per match

Virtus Entella U19

1.24

FeralpiSalò U19

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Entella U19+0.00on par

FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Entella U19 ↓

FeralpiSalò U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Virtus Entella U19 or draw

79%

Virtus Entella U19 or FeralpiSalò U19

78%

Draw or FeralpiSalò U19

43%

Winning margin

Virtus Entella U19 wins by 2+

33%

FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Virtus Entella U19 1+ goals

85%

Virtus Entella U19 2+ goals

56%

Virtus Entella U19 3+ goals

29%

FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals

65%

FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals

28%

FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Virtus Entella U19 (draw refunded)

73%

FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Entella U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 84 matches

FeralpiSalò U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Entella U19 attack 1.63 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.88

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 0.85 + Virtus Entella U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Virtus Entella U19 scores more

57%

level

22%

FeralpiSalò U19 scores more

21%

Virtus Entella U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Virtus Entella U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff