Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Treviso — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Treviso
Treviso
11/3/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo29%
×Draw25%
Treviso47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.19
Treviso
1.59

Treviso creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.37
Treviso
1.55

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.63
Treviso
1.00

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par
Treviso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Treviso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw
53%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Treviso
75%
Draw or Treviso
71%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
12%
Treviso wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
70%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
33%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
12%
Treviso 1+ goals
80%
Treviso 2+ goals
47%
Treviso 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
38%
Treviso (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Treviso away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Treviso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Treviso attack 1.55 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
29%
level
25%
Treviso scores more
47%

Treviso at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Treviso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Treviso

Treviso beat Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Rossoni in Ciserano.