Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1–1 Montecchio Maggiore

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Montecchio Maggiore

2/2/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 26Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo36%

×Draw25%

Montecchio Maggiore39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus Ciserano BergamoExpected goals in this matchMontecchio Maggiore

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.48

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.41

Montecchio Maggiore

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

1.37

creates per match

1.32

1.63

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.37

Montecchio Maggiore

1.32

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.63

Montecchio Maggiore

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw

61%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Montecchio Maggiore

75%

Draw or Montecchio Maggiore

64%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+

17%

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals

76%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals

41%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals

17%

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

77%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

43%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)

48%

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more

36%

level

25%

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

39%

Montecchio Maggiore at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff