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Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Luparense
Luparense
O. Adrian 68'
M. Colombi 54'
12/1/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo35%
×Draw26%
Luparense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.33
Luparense
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.37
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.63
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw
61%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Luparense
74%
Draw or Luparense
65%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
16%
Luparense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
74%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
38%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
15%
Luparense 1+ goals
76%
Luparense 2+ goals
41%
Luparense 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
47%
Luparense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Luparense attack 1.21 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
35%
level
26%
Luparense scores more
39%

Luparense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
M. Colombi
68'
O. Adrian
77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 0–2 Luparense

Luparense beat Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 1, 2024.

Goals: M. Colombi (54'), O. Adrian (68').

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Rossoni in Ciserano.