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Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Lavis — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Lavis
Lavis
1/11/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo59%
×Draw21%
Lavis20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
2.10
Lavis
1.13

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo creates 86% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.37
Lavis
0.63

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.63
Lavis
2.84

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par
Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Lavis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw
80%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Lavis
79%
Draw or Lavis
41%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
36%
Lavis wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
88%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
62%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
35%
Lavis 1+ goals
68%
Lavis 2+ goals
31%
Lavis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
75%
Lavis (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.10

Lavis attack 0.63 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
59%
level
21%
Lavis scores more
20%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Virtus Ciserano Bergamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Lavis

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo beat Lavis 4-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Rossoni in Ciserano.