Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2–0 Caravaggio

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Caravaggio

10/13/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo38%

×Draw26%

Caravaggio36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Virtus Ciserano BergamoExpected goals in this matchCaravaggio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.34

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.37

Caravaggio

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.05

1.63

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.37

Caravaggio

1.05

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.63

Caravaggio

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Caravaggio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw

64%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Caravaggio

74%

Draw or Caravaggio

62%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+

17%

Caravaggio wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals

75%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals

40%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals

16%

Caravaggio 1+ goals

74%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

39%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)

51%

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Caravaggio defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Caravaggio attack 1.05 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more

38%

level

26%

Caravaggio scores more

36%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Virtus Ciserano Bergamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff