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Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Campodarsego — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Campodarsego
Campodarsego
10/2/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo31%
×Draw26%
Campodarsego42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.18
Campodarsego
1.42

Campodarsego creates 20% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.37
Campodarsego
1.20

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.63
Campodarsego
0.99

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par
Campodarsego+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Campodarsego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw
58%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Campodarsego
74%
Draw or Campodarsego
69%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
13%
Campodarsego wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
69%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
33%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
12%
Campodarsego 1+ goals
76%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
41%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
42%
Campodarsego (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Campodarsego away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Campodarsego defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.18

Campodarsego attack 1.20 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
31%
level
26%
Campodarsego scores more
42%

Campodarsego at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Campodarsego

Campodarsego beat Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Rossoni in Ciserano.