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Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Brian Lignano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brian Lignano
Brian Lignano
3/2/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Stadio Carlo Rossoni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo32%
×Draw24%
Brian Lignano43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.35
Brian Lignano
1.60

Brian Lignano creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.37
Brian Lignano
1.58

allows per match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.63
Brian Lignano
1.33

finishing

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par
Brian Lignano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo ↓

Brian Lignano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or draw
57%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo or Brian Lignano
76%
Draw or Brian Lignano
68%

Winning margin

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
14%
Brian Lignano wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
74%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
39%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
15%
Brian Lignano 1+ goals
80%
Brian Lignano 2+ goals
47%
Brian Lignano 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
43%
Brian Lignano (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Brian Lignano away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 1.37 + Brian Lignano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Brian Lignano attack 1.58 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
32%
level
24%
Brian Lignano scores more
43%

Brian Lignano at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brian Lignano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Ciserano Bergamo vs Brian Lignano

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo and Brian Lignano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Carlo Rossoni in Ciserano.