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Virtus Bolzano vs Portogruaro — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Portogruaro
Portogruaro
A. Kaptina 85', 80'
K. Rossi 18'
N. Calcagnotto 12'
4/24/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Virtus Bolzano46%
×Draw25%
Portogruaro29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Bolzano
1.56
Portogruaro
1.20

Virtus Bolzano creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.41
Portogruaro
0.96

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.44
Portogruaro
1.71

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par
Portogruaro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Portogruaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw
71%
Virtus Bolzano or Portogruaro
75%
Draw or Portogruaro
54%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
23%
Portogruaro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
79%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
46%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
21%
Portogruaro 1+ goals
70%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
34%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
61%
Portogruaro (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Portogruaro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Portogruaro defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Portogruaro attack 0.96 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more
46%
level
25%
Portogruaro scores more
29%

Virtus Bolzano at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Virtus Bolzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
N. Calcagnotto
18'
K. Rossi
80'
A. Kaptina
85'
A. Kaptina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Virtus Bolzano 2–2 Portogruaro

Virtus Bolzano and Portogruaro drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on April 24, 2024.

Goals: N. Calcagnotto (12'), K. Rossi (18'), A. Kaptina (80', 85').

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.