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Virtus Bolzano vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
N. Cescatti 5'
12/16/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Virtus Bolzano57%
×Draw23%
Mori Santo Stefano20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Bolzano
1.83
Mori Santo Stefano
0.98

Virtus Bolzano creates 87% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.41
Mori Santo Stefano
0.53

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.44
Mori Santo Stefano
2.24

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par
Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw
80%
Virtus Bolzano or Mori Santo Stefano
77%
Draw or Mori Santo Stefano
43%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
33%
Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
84%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
54%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
28%
Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
62%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
26%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
74%
Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more
57%
level
23%
Mori Santo Stefano scores more
20%

Virtus Bolzano at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Virtus Bolzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
N. Cescatti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Bolzano vs Mori Santo Stefano

Mori Santo Stefano beat Virtus Bolzano 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 16, 2023.

Goals: N. Cescatti (5').

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.