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Virtus Bolzano vs Clodiense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Clodiense
Clodiense
3/17/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 27Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Virtus Bolzano31%
×Draw26%
Clodiense43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Bolzano
1.18
Clodiense
1.44

Clodiense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 82 away

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.41
Clodiense
1.44

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.44
Clodiense
0.95

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par
Clodiense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Clodiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw
57%
Virtus Bolzano or Clodiense
74%
Draw or Clodiense
69%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
13%
Clodiense wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
69%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
33%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
12%
Clodiense 1+ goals
76%
Clodiense 2+ goals
42%
Clodiense 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
42%
Clodiense (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Clodiense away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Clodiense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.18

Clodiense attack 1.44 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more
31%
level
26%
Clodiense scores more
43%

Clodiense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Bolzano vs Clodiense

Virtus Bolzano and Clodiense drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.