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Virtus Bolzano vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
Vinciguerra 30'
Gerardi 49'
Milani 40' (OG)
Olonisakin 20'
9/10/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 1Campo Calcio Righi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Virtus Bolzano36%
×Draw28%
Bassano Virtus36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virtus Bolzano
1.17
Bassano Virtus
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 53 away

creates per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.41
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Virtus Bolzano
1.44
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virtus Bolzano ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Virtus Bolzano or draw
64%
Virtus Bolzano or Bassano Virtus
72%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
64%

Winning margin

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
15%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
69%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
33%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
11%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
69%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
33%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
50%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virtus Bolzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virtus Bolzano attack 1.41 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Virtus Bolzano scores more
36%
level
28%
Bassano Virtus scores more
36%

Virtus Bolzano at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Virtus Bolzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Olonisakin
30'
Vinciguerra
40'
MilaniOwn goal
49'
Gerardi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virtus Bolzano vs Bassano Virtus

Bassano Virtus beat Virtus Bolzano 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 10, 2023.

Goals: Olonisakin (20'), Vinciguerra (30'), Milani (40' o.g.), Gerardi (49').

The match was played at Campo Calcio Righi in Bozen.