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Virkiä vs SIF — Suomen Cup 2018

Virkiä
Virkiä
FT
5 – 1
SIF
SIF
3/30/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundLiuhtari TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Virkiä25%
×Draw17%
SIF58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virkiä
2.21
SIF
3.30

SIF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Virkiä
2.43
SIF
3.60

allows per match

Virkiä
3.00
SIF
2.00

finishing

Virkiä+0.00on par
SIF+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virkiä ↓

SIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Virkiä or draw
42%
Virkiä or SIF
83%
Draw or SIF
75%

Winning margin

Virkiä wins by 2+
13%
SIF wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Virkiä 1+ goals
89%
Virkiä 2+ goals
65%
Virkiä 3+ goals
38%
SIF 1+ goals
96%
SIF 2+ goals
83%
SIF 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Virkiä (draw refunded)
30%
SIF (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virkiä at home — creates 2.43, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

SIF away — creates 3.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virkiä attack 2.43 + SIF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

SIF attack 3.60 + Virkiä defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Virkiä scores more
25%
level
17%
SIF scores more
58%

SIF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virkiä 5 – 1 SIF

Virkiä beat SIF 5-1 in Suomen Cup on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Liuhtari TN in Lapua.