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Virkiä vs JS Hercules — Suomen Cup 2018

Virkiä
Virkiä
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
JS Hercules
JS Herculesadvanced
4/29/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 64Liuhtari TN - artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Virkiä33%
×Draw18%
JS Hercules49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Virkiä
2.46
JS Hercules
3.00

JS Hercules creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Virkiä
2.43
JS Hercules
3.00

allows per match

Virkiä
3.00
JS Hercules
2.50

finishing

Virkiä+0.00on par
JS Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virkiä ↓

JS Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Virkiä or draw
51%
Virkiä or JS Hercules
82%
Draw or JS Hercules
67%

Winning margin

Virkiä wins by 2+
18%
JS Hercules wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Virkiä 1+ goals
91%
Virkiä 2+ goals
70%
Virkiä 3+ goals
44%
JS Hercules 1+ goals
95%
JS Hercules 2+ goals
79%
JS Hercules 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Virkiä (draw refunded)
40%
JS Hercules (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Virkiä at home — creates 2.43, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

JS Hercules away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Virkiä attack 2.43 + JS Hercules defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.46

JS Hercules attack 3.00 + Virkiä defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Virkiä scores more
33%
level
18%
JS Hercules scores more
49%

JS Hercules at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "JS Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Virkiä vs JS Hercules

JS Hercules beat Virkiä 4-1 in Suomen Cup on April 29, 2026.

The match was played at Liuhtari TN - artificial grass.