Virkiä 1–7 AC Oulu: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Virkiä

1 – 7

HT: 0 – 2

AC Oulu

4/16/2024

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundLiuhtari TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Virkiä25%

×Draw19%

AC Oulu56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VirkiäExpected goals in this matchAC Oulu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

2.63

Virkiä

1.74

AC Oulu

2.63

AC Oulu creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 22 away

2.43

creates per match

2.27

3.00

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Virkiä

2.43

AC Oulu

2.27

allows per match

Virkiä

3.00

AC Oulu

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Virkiä+0.00on par

AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Virkiä ↓

AC Oulu →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Virkiä or draw

44%

Virkiä or AC Oulu

81%

Draw or AC Oulu

75%

Winning margin

Virkiä wins by 2+

12%

AC Oulu wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Virkiä 1+ goals

82%

Virkiä 2+ goals

52%

Virkiä 3+ goals

25%

AC Oulu 1+ goals

93%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

73%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Virkiä (draw refunded)

31%

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Virkiä at home — creates 2.43, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Virkiä attack 2.43 + AC Oulu defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.74

AC Oulu attack 2.27 + Virkiä defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Virkiä scores more

25%

level

19%

AC Oulu scores more

56%

AC Oulu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff