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Vipers vs West Torrens Birkalla — South Australia State League 1 2021

Vipers
Vipers
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
West Torrens Birkalla
West Torrens Birkalla
5/18/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 11Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vipers37%
×Draw22%
West Torrens Birkalla41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.69
West Torrens Birkalla
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 37 away

creates per match

Vipers
1.76
West Torrens Birkalla
1.86

allows per match

Vipers
1.70
West Torrens Birkalla
1.62

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
West Torrens Birkalla+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

West Torrens Birkalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
59%
Vipers or West Torrens Birkalla
78%
Draw or West Torrens Birkalla
63%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
19%
West Torrens Birkalla wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
82%
Vipers 2+ goals
50%
Vipers 3+ goals
24%
West Torrens Birkalla 1+ goals
83%
West Torrens Birkalla 2+ goals
53%
West Torrens Birkalla 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
48%
West Torrens Birkalla (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

West Torrens Birkalla away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + West Torrens Birkalla defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.69

West Torrens Birkalla attack 1.86 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vipers scores more
37%
level
22%
West Torrens Birkalla scores more
41%

West Torrens Birkalla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Torrens Birkalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vipers vs West Torrens Birkalla

Vipers beat West Torrens Birkalla 4-2 in South Australia State League 1 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.