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Vipers vs UPDF — Premier League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
UPDF
UPDF
4/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Vipers65%
×Draw21%
UPDF13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.88
UPDF
0.71

Vipers creates 165% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 87 away

creates per match

Vipers
2.05
UPDF
0.92

allows per match

Vipers
0.49
UPDF
1.71

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
UPDF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

UPDF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
87%
Vipers or UPDF
79%
Draw or UPDF
35%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
39%
UPDF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
85%
Vipers 2+ goals
56%
Vipers 3+ goals
29%
UPDF 1+ goals
51%
UPDF 2+ goals
16%
UPDF 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
83%
UPDF (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

UPDF away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + UPDF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.88

UPDF attack 0.92 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vipers scores more
65%
level
21%
UPDF scores more
13%

Vipers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vipers 2–1 UPDF

Vipers beat UPDF 2-1 in Premier League on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Kitende.