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Vipers vs Tooro United — Premier League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tooro United
Tooro United
12/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Vipers78%
×Draw15%
Tooro United7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
2.36
Tooro United
0.54

Vipers creates 337% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 27 away

creates per match

Vipers
2.05
Tooro United
0.59

allows per match

Vipers
0.49
Tooro United
2.67

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Tooro United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Tooro United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
93%
Vipers or Tooro United
85%
Draw or Tooro United
22%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
54%
Tooro United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
90%
Vipers 2+ goals
68%
Vipers 3+ goals
41%
Tooro United 1+ goals
42%
Tooro United 2+ goals
10%
Tooro United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
92%
Tooro United (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Tooro United away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + Tooro United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.36

Tooro United attack 0.59 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Vipers scores more
78%
level
15%
Tooro United scores more
7%

Vipers at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vipers vs Tooro United

Vipers beat Tooro United 1-0 in Premier League on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Kitende.