Vipers 2–1 South Adelaide Panthers: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

South Adelaide Panthers

4/5/2025

South Australia State League 1 · Round 5Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vipers54%

×Draw20%

South Adelaide Panthers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchSouth Adelaide Panthers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.50

Vipers

2.25

South Adelaide Panthers

1.50

Vipers creates 50% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

1.76

creates per match

1.30

1.70

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Vipers

1.76

South Adelaide Panthers

1.30

allows per match

Vipers

1.70

South Adelaide Panthers

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

South Adelaide Panthers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

South Adelaide Panthers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

75%

Vipers or South Adelaide Panthers

80%

Draw or South Adelaide Panthers

46%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

33%

South Adelaide Panthers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

89%

Vipers 2+ goals

65%

Vipers 3+ goals

39%

South Adelaide Panthers 1+ goals

78%

South Adelaide Panthers 2+ goals

44%

South Adelaide Panthers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

68%

South Adelaide Panthers (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

South Adelaide Panthers away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + South Adelaide Panthers defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.25

South Adelaide Panthers attack 1.30 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vipers scores more

54%

level

20%

South Adelaide Panthers scores more

25%

Vipers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff