Vipers 1–1 SC Villa: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SC Villa

11/29/2025

Premier League · Round 1St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Vipers56%

×Draw26%

SC Villa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchSC Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.74

Vipers

1.51

SC Villa

0.74

Vipers creates 104% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 99 away

2.05

creates per match

0.99

0.49

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Vipers

2.05

SC Villa

0.99

allows per match

Vipers

0.49

SC Villa

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

SC Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

SC Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

82%

Vipers or SC Villa

74%

Draw or SC Villa

44%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

29%

SC Villa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

78%

Vipers 2+ goals

44%

Vipers 3+ goals

19%

SC Villa 1+ goals

52%

SC Villa 2+ goals

17%

SC Villa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

75%

SC Villa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

SC Villa away — creates 0.99, concedes 0.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + SC Villa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.51

SC Villa attack 0.99 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vipers scores more

56%

level

26%

SC Villa scores more

18%

Vipers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff