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Vipers vs Power Dynamos — CAF Champions League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
10/19/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vipers44%
×Draw30%
Power Dynamos26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.17
Power Dynamos
0.83

Vipers creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vipers
0.67
Power Dynamos
1.00

allows per match

Vipers
0.67
Power Dynamos
1.67

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Power Dynamos+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Power Dynamos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
74%
Vipers or Power Dynamos
70%
Draw or Power Dynamos
56%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
19%
Power Dynamos wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
69%
Vipers 2+ goals
33%
Vipers 3+ goals
11%
Power Dynamos 1+ goals
56%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
20%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
63%
Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Power Dynamos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 0.67 + Power Dynamos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Power Dynamos attack 1.00 + Vipers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vipers scores more
44%
level
30%
Power Dynamos scores more
26%

Vipers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vipers vs Power Dynamos

Power Dynamos beat Vipers 2-1 in CAF Champions League on October 19, 2025.