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Vipers vs Onduparaka — Premier League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
CANC
12:00
Onduparaka
Onduparaka
6/19/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Vipers64%
×Draw22%
Onduparaka14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.84
Onduparaka
0.71

Vipers creates 159% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 55 away

creates per match

Vipers
2.05
Onduparaka
0.93

allows per match

Vipers
0.49
Onduparaka
1.64

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Onduparaka+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Onduparaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
86%
Vipers or Onduparaka
78%
Draw or Onduparaka
36%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
38%
Onduparaka wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
84%
Vipers 2+ goals
55%
Vipers 3+ goals
28%
Onduparaka 1+ goals
51%
Onduparaka 2+ goals
16%
Onduparaka 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
82%
Onduparaka (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Onduparaka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + Onduparaka defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.84

Onduparaka attack 0.93 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vipers scores more
64%
level
22%
Onduparaka scores more
14%

Vipers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vipers face Onduparaka (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Vipers hosting Onduparaka. Match starts June 19, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Vipers host Onduparaka at St. Mary's Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.