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Vipers vs NEC — Premier League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
NEC
NEC
2/17/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vipers54%
×Draw26%
NEC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.49
NEC
0.78

Vipers creates 91% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 44 away

creates per match

Vipers
2.05
NEC
1.07

allows per match

Vipers
0.49
NEC
0.93

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
NEC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

NEC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
80%
Vipers or NEC
74%
Draw or NEC
46%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
28%
NEC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
77%
Vipers 2+ goals
44%
Vipers 3+ goals
19%
NEC 1+ goals
54%
NEC 2+ goals
18%
NEC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
73%
NEC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

NEC away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + NEC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.49

NEC attack 1.07 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vipers scores more
54%
level
26%
NEC scores more
20%

Vipers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vipers 1 – 1 NEC

Vipers and NEC drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 17, 2026.