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Vipers vs Kyetume — Premier League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
CANC
12:00
Kyetume
Kyetume
6/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vipers68%
×Draw20%
Kyetume11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.96
Kyetume
0.65

Vipers creates 202% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vipers
2.05
Kyetume
0.81

allows per match

Vipers
0.49
Kyetume
1.88

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Kyetume+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Kyetume →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
89%
Vipers or Kyetume
80%
Draw or Kyetume
32%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
42%
Kyetume wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
86%
Vipers 2+ goals
58%
Vipers 3+ goals
31%
Kyetume 1+ goals
48%
Kyetume 2+ goals
14%
Kyetume 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
86%
Kyetume (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Kyetume away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + Kyetume defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kyetume attack 0.81 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vipers scores more
68%
level
20%
Kyetume scores more
11%

Vipers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vipers host Kyetume

June 30, 2021: Vipers take on Kyetume in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vipers host Kyetume at St. Mary's Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.