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Vipers vs Horoya — CAF Champions League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Horoya
Horoya
2/18/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 2St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vipers49%
×Draw32%
Horoya19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.13
Horoya
0.57

Vipers creates 98% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vipers
0.67
Horoya
0.47

allows per match

Vipers
0.67
Horoya
1.59

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Horoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
81%
Vipers or Horoya
68%
Draw or Horoya
51%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
21%
Horoya wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
68%
Vipers 2+ goals
31%
Vipers 3+ goals
11%
Horoya 1+ goals
43%
Horoya 2+ goals
11%
Horoya 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
73%
Horoya (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 0.67 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.13

Horoya attack 0.47 + Vipers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vipers scores more
49%
level
32%
Horoya scores more
19%

Vipers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vipers 0 – 0 Horoya

Vipers and Horoya drew 0-0 in CAF Champions League on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Kitende.