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Vipers vs Galaxy — CAF Champions League 2019

Vipers
Vipers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Galaxy
Galaxy
8/26/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundSt. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vipers55%
×Draw27%
Galaxy18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.44
Galaxy
0.69

Vipers creates 109% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vipers
0.67
Galaxy
0.71

allows per match

Vipers
0.67
Galaxy
2.21

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Galaxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
82%
Vipers or Galaxy
73%
Draw or Galaxy
45%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
28%
Galaxy wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
76%
Vipers 2+ goals
42%
Vipers 3+ goals
18%
Galaxy 1+ goals
50%
Galaxy 2+ goals
15%
Galaxy 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
75%
Galaxy (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Galaxy away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 0.67 + Galaxy defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Galaxy attack 0.71 + Vipers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vipers scores more
55%
level
27%
Galaxy scores more
18%

Vipers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Vipers 2–1 Galaxy

Vipers beat Galaxy 2-1 in CAF Champions League on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at St. Mary's Stadium in Kitende.