Vipers 3–0 Entebbe UPPC: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Entebbe UPPC

4/26/2026

Premier League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vipers53%

×Draw27%

Entebbe UPPC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchEntebbe UPPC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.74

Vipers

1.42

Entebbe UPPC

0.74

Vipers creates 92% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

2.05

creates per match

1.00

0.49

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Vipers

2.05

Entebbe UPPC

1.00

allows per match

Vipers

0.49

Entebbe UPPC

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Entebbe UPPC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

80%

Vipers or Entebbe UPPC

73%

Draw or Entebbe UPPC

47%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

27%

Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

76%

Vipers 2+ goals

41%

Vipers 3+ goals

17%

Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals

52%

Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals

17%

Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

73%

Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Entebbe UPPC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.42

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vipers scores more

53%

level

27%

Entebbe UPPC scores more

20%

Vipers at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff