Vipers 2–2 Cumberland United: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

2 – 2

Cumberland United

3/23/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 4Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vipers42%

×Draw24%

Cumberland United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchCumberland United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.48

Vipers

1.67

Cumberland United

1.48

Vipers creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

1.76

creates per match

1.26

1.70

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Vipers

1.76

Cumberland United

1.26

allows per match

Vipers

1.70

Cumberland United

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

Cumberland United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Cumberland United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

66%

Vipers or Cumberland United

76%

Draw or Cumberland United

58%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

22%

Cumberland United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

81%

Vipers 2+ goals

50%

Vipers 3+ goals

23%

Cumberland United 1+ goals

77%

Cumberland United 2+ goals

43%

Cumberland United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

55%

Cumberland United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Cumberland United away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + Cumberland United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cumberland United attack 1.26 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vipers scores more

42%

level

24%

Cumberland United scores more

34%

Vipers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff