Vipers 2–0 Blacks Power: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Blacks Power

4/8/2023

Premier League · Round 22St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vipers71%

×Draw20%

Blacks Power9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchBlacks Power

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.53

Vipers

1.92

Blacks Power

0.53

Vipers creates 262% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 14 away

2.05

creates per match

0.57

0.49

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Vipers

2.05

Blacks Power

0.57

allows per match

Vipers

0.49

Blacks Power

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

Blacks Power+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Blacks Power →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

91%

Vipers or Blacks Power

80%

Draw or Blacks Power

29%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

44%

Blacks Power wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

85%

Vipers 2+ goals

57%

Vipers 3+ goals

30%

Blacks Power 1+ goals

41%

Blacks Power 2+ goals

10%

Blacks Power 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

88%

Blacks Power (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.49 · 99 matches

Blacks Power away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 2.05 + Blacks Power defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.92

Blacks Power attack 0.57 + Vipers defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Vipers scores more

71%

level

20%

Blacks Power scores more

9%

Vipers at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff