Vipers 0–1 Al Hilal Omdurman: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Hilal Omdurman

Waleed Bakhet Hamid 26'

11/28/2020

CAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundSt. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vipers37%

×Draw35%

Al Hilal Omdurman28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Omdurman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.73

Vipers

0.88

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.73

Vipers creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 36 away

0.67

creates per match

0.78

0.67

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Vipers

0.67

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.78

allows per match

Vipers

0.67

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–115%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

72%

Vipers or Al Hilal Omdurman

65%

Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman

63%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

13%

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

59%

Vipers 2+ goals

22%

Vipers 3+ goals

6%

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

52%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

17%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

57%

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 0.67 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 0.78 + Vipers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vipers scores more

37%

level

35%

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

28%

Vipers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Waleed Bakhet Hamid

Vipers

Al

1

22

2

12

17

4

23

13

28

11

⚽

9

1

5

21

27

3

6

8

25

29

9

10

Manager: E. Golola

Vipers substitutes

19Ssekagya20Bagoole13Sserunkuma7Orit4Mulondo12Toha14Mucureezi

Manager: Z. Manojlovic

Al Hilal Omdurman substitutes

3Omer16Salim10Eldai5Mokhtar8Jesi7Kori15Aahmed