Vipers 1–0 African Stars: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

African Stars

9/27/2025

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundSt. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vipers50%

×Draw37%

African Stars13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchAfrican Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.34

Vipers

0.96

African Stars

0.34

Vipers creates 182% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

0.00

0.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Vipers

0.67

African Stars

0.00

allows per match

Vipers

0.67

African Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

African Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under86
Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No82
Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

African Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–027%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–026%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (27%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

73%27%1.5

37%63%2.5

14%86%3.5

4%96%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

87%

Vipers or African Stars

63%

Draw or African Stars

50%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

20%

African Stars wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

62%

Vipers 2+ goals

25%

Vipers 3+ goals

7%

African Stars 1+ goals

29%

African Stars 2+ goals

5%

African Stars 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

80%

African Stars (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

9%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

African Stars away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 0.67 + African Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

African Stars attack 0.00 + Vipers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vipers scores more

50%

level

37%

African Stars scores more

13%

Vipers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff