Vipers 3–2 Adelaide Raiders: Result & Stats

Vipers

FT

3 – 2

Adelaide Raiders

8/5/2023

South Australia State League 1 · Round 21Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Vipers36%

×Draw22%

Adelaide Raiders42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VipersExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Raiders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.90

Vipers

1.75

Adelaide Raiders

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

1.76

creates per match

2.09

1.70

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Vipers

1.76

Adelaide Raiders

2.09

allows per match

Vipers

1.70

Adelaide Raiders

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Adelaide Raiders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vipers or draw

58%

Vipers or Adelaide Raiders

78%

Draw or Adelaide Raiders

64%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+

18%

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals

83%

Vipers 2+ goals

52%

Vipers 3+ goals

25%

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

85%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

56%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)

46%

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Adelaide Raiders away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Adelaide Raiders attack 2.09 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vipers scores more

36%

level

22%

Adelaide Raiders scores more

42%

Adelaide Raiders at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adelaide Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff