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Vipava vs Zagorje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Vipava
Vipava
FT
3 – 1
Zagorje
Zagorje
9/13/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 5Stadion ob Beli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vipava72%
×Draw16%
Zagorje12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipava
2.61
Zagorje
0.96

Vipava creates 172% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vipava
1.13
Zagorje
0.70

allows per match

Vipava
1.22
Zagorje
4.10

finishing

Vipava+0.00on par
Zagorje+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipava ↓

Zagorje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vipava or draw
88%
Vipava or Zagorje
84%
Draw or Zagorje
28%

Winning margin

Vipava wins by 2+
51%
Zagorje wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vipava 1+ goals
93%
Vipava 2+ goals
73%
Vipava 3+ goals
47%
Zagorje 1+ goals
62%
Zagorje 2+ goals
25%
Zagorje 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vipava (draw refunded)
86%
Zagorje (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipava at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Zagorje away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipava attack 1.13 + Zagorje defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.61

Zagorje attack 0.70 + Vipava defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Vipava scores more
72%
level
16%
Zagorje scores more
12%

Vipava at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Vipava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Vipava 3–1 Zagorje

Vipava beat Zagorje 3-1 in 3. SNL - West on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion ob Beli in Vipava.