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Vinhais vs Nacional — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vinhais
Vinhais
FT
0 – 3
Nacional
Nacional
9/25/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Vinhais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vinhais9%
×Draw13%
Nacional78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vinhais
1.11
Nacional
3.28

Nacional creates 195% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vinhais
0.33
Nacional
2.22

allows per match

Vinhais
4.33
Nacional
1.89

finishing

Vinhais+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vinhais ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Vinhais or draw
22%
Vinhais or Nacional
87%
Draw or Nacional
91%

Winning margin

Vinhais wins by 2+
3%
Nacional wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Vinhais 1+ goals
67%
Vinhais 2+ goals
30%
Vinhais 3+ goals
10%
Nacional 1+ goals
96%
Nacional 2+ goals
83%
Nacional 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Vinhais (draw refunded)
11%
Nacional (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vinhais at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vinhais attack 0.33 + Nacional defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nacional attack 2.22 + Vinhais defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Vinhais scores more
9%
level
13%
Nacional scores more
78%

Nacional at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vinhais vs Nacional

Nacional beat Vinhais 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vinhais in Vinhais.