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Vindbjart vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Vindbjart
Vindbjart
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Start II
Start II
4/26/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 3Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vindbjart61%
×Draw18%
Start II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vindbjart
2.72
Start II
1.58

Vindbjart creates 72% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vindbjart
2.59
Start II
1.38

allows per match

Vindbjart
1.78
Start II
2.85

finishing

Vindbjart+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vindbjart ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Vindbjart or draw
79%
Vindbjart or Start II
82%
Draw or Start II
39%

Winning margin

Vindbjart wins by 2+
41%
Start II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vindbjart 1+ goals
93%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
75%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
50%
Start II 1+ goals
79%
Start II 2+ goals
47%
Start II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vindbjart (draw refunded)
74%
Start II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vindbjart at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vindbjart attack 2.59 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.72

Start II attack 1.38 + Vindbjart defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vindbjart scores more
61%
level
18%
Start II scores more
21%

Vindbjart at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vindbjart vs Start II

Vindbjart and Start II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla in Vennesla.