Start II 1–1 Vindbjart: Result & Stats

Start II

FT

1 – 1

Vindbjart

4/11/2023

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 1Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Start II48%

×Draw22%

Vindbjart30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Start IIExpected goals in this matchVindbjart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.55

Start II

1.98

Vindbjart

1.55

Start II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

2.23

creates per match

1.56

1.54

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Start II

2.23

Vindbjart

1.56

allows per match

Start II

1.54

Vindbjart

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start II+0.00on par

Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Vindbjart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Start II or draw

70%

Start II or Vindbjart

78%

Draw or Vindbjart

52%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+

27%

Vindbjart wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals

86%

Start II 2+ goals

59%

Start II 3+ goals

31%

Vindbjart 1+ goals

79%

Vindbjart 2+ goals

46%

Vindbjart 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)

61%

Vindbjart (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 2.23 + Vindbjart defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vindbjart attack 1.56 + Start II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Start II scores more

48%

level

22%

Vindbjart scores more

30%

Start II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff