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Vindbjart vs Fredrikstad II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Vindbjart
Vindbjart
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Fredrikstad II
Fredrikstad II
6/18/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 11Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Vindbjart49%
×Draw19%
Fredrikstad II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vindbjart
2.47
Fredrikstad II
1.95

Vindbjart creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Vindbjart
2.59
Fredrikstad II
2.12

allows per match

Vindbjart
1.78
Fredrikstad II
2.35

finishing

Vindbjart+0.00on par
Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vindbjart ↓

Fredrikstad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Vindbjart or draw
69%
Vindbjart or Fredrikstad II
81%
Draw or Fredrikstad II
51%

Winning margin

Vindbjart wins by 2+
30%
Fredrikstad II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vindbjart 1+ goals
91%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
70%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
44%
Fredrikstad II 1+ goals
86%
Fredrikstad II 2+ goals
58%
Fredrikstad II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Vindbjart (draw refunded)
61%
Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vindbjart at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

Fredrikstad II away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vindbjart attack 2.59 + Fredrikstad II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.47

Fredrikstad II attack 2.12 + Vindbjart defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vindbjart scores more
49%
level
19%
Fredrikstad II scores more
31%

Vindbjart at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vindbjart vs Fredrikstad II

Fredrikstad II beat Vindbjart 4-3 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla in Vennesla.