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Vindbjart vs Express — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Vindbjart
Vindbjart
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Express
Express
M. A. Aslaksen 45'
O. W. Heia 78'
L. Thelle 58'
8/1/20223. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 14Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vindbjart63%
×Draw17%
Express20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vindbjart
2.83
Express
1.58

Vindbjart creates 79% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Vindbjart
2.59
Express
1.38

allows per match

Vindbjart
1.78
Express
3.08

finishing

Vindbjart+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vindbjart ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Vindbjart or draw
80%
Vindbjart or Express
83%
Draw or Express
37%

Winning margin

Vindbjart wins by 2+
43%
Express wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vindbjart 1+ goals
94%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
77%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
53%
Express 1+ goals
79%
Express 2+ goals
47%
Express 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vindbjart (draw refunded)
76%
Express (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vindbjart at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

Express away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vindbjart attack 2.59 + Express defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.83

Express attack 1.38 + Vindbjart defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vindbjart scores more
63%
level
17%
Express scores more
20%

Vindbjart at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vindbjart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. A. Aslaksen
58'
L. Thelle
78'
O. W. Heia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Vindbjart 1–2 Express

Express beat Vindbjart 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 1, 2022.

Goals: M. A. Aslaksen (45'), L. Thelle (58'), O. W. Heia (78').

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør-banen Vennesla in Vennesla.